Philadelphia Eagles’ head coach Doug Pederson has been quickly developing a reputation as the NFL’s most aggressive play-caller. His fourth down decisions in particular have been paying dividends for the Eagles’ offense and this past Sunday was no exception. Facing a fourth and goal late in the third quarter at the Rams two-yard line and trailing 28-24, Pederson didn’t hesitate to go for the end zone. As we have seen many times, coaches can have a very difficult time rejecting a field goal when it provides the highest probability of a score after a long drive deep into opposing territory. But as Doug Pederson knows all too well, the right choice is the one that provides the highest chance of winning the game on average. In this particular situation, the touchdown attempt was clearly the correct choice. An extensive analysis by EdjSports’ Zeno play-calling model indicates a field goal attempt would have cost the Eagles more than 7% in Game-Winning Chance (GWC). Pederson’s calculation and confidence were rewarded with a touchdown and subsequently their 11th win of the season. With the season ending injury to Carson Wentz, the Eagles will need to continue to optimize every play-calling decision – including fourth downs.